Cyber as a Pressure Valve: Why Economic Conflict Is Fueling a New Era of Cyber Escalation

The United States raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, triggering a sharp escalation in trade tensions and retaliatory measures. Within days, China responded with 125% tariffs on American goods and a warning that “all options are on the table.” Behind the economic headlines, cybersecurity experts were watching for something less visible but just as consequential: a wave of state-sponsored cyber operations quietly gaining momentum. 

That wave is already here.

According to a joint alert issued in early 2024 by CISA, NSA, and FBI, Chinese state-sponsored actors are actively embedding themselves in U.S. critical infrastructure, not for immediate disruption but to prepare for it. Their goal is long-term: gain persistent access, map critical systems, and lie in wait for the moment geopolitical tensions warrant action.

At the same time, commercial sectors are seeing the fallout. In fact, according to a report, 2024 saw a 56% increase in zero-day vulnerabilities exploited in ransomware attacks, many targeting logistics and manufacturing firms — the backbone of global supply chains and a prime pressure point during economic conflict. Meanwhile, China’s cyber espionage footprint is expanding dramatically, with a 150% surge in Chinese-aligned espionage campaigns, zeroing in on sectors like robotics, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and semiconductors — exactly the industries at the center of trade competition.

The message is clear: cyber is no longer a separate domain. It is the digital extension of trade policy — and a favored instrument of statecraft.

State-Sponsored Cyber as an Extension of Trade Policy

Economic conflict is often seen as a game of leverage: tariffs, sanctions, and export controls. But in the current landscape, that economic pressure is fueling a second, quieter campaign — cyber infiltration.

As noted earlier, federal intelligence has confirmed that adversarial nation-state actors are no longer simply stealing data. They are strategically prepositioning — embedding themselves within critical infrastructure not to cause immediate disruption, but to gather intelligence and prepare to act at a moment’s notice.

One of the clearest examples is Volt Typhoon, a Chinese state-backed campaign first exposed in 2023 and linked to months-long infiltrations of U.S. critical infrastructure. In a secret meeting at a Geneva summit in December 2024, Chinese officials implicitly admitted to launching Volt Typhoon attacks as retaliation for U.S. support for Taiwan, according to The Wall Street Journal. These campaigns targeted sectors including communications, energy, transportation, IT, and defense-related manufacturing, with one group dwelling inside the U.S. electric grid for nearly 300 days.

The U.S. intelligence community now sees these actions as “operational preparation of the battlefield” — laying digital groundwork that could be activated in the event of a Taiwan conflict or broader escalation.

High-Value Targets in a Tense Landscape

These intrusions are not random. They are targeted. The sectors most at risk today are those that hold economic power and national security value:

• Manufacturing, especially linked to defense and advanced technology
• Semiconductors and microelectronics
• Energy and utilities
• Logistics and telecommunications
• Healthcare and financial services

What makes these industries vulnerable isn’t just what they produce, but how connected they are. They depend on complex digital supply chains where even a single weak link can serve as a gateway to the entire ecosystem.

And the attackers know that. They’re not rushing the process. They’re embedding deeply and quietly, aiming to erode resilience and readiness long before a single alarm goes off.

Why Resiliency Is the New Baseline

For years, cybersecurity strategies have focused on detection and recovery: build strong perimeters, respond quickly, and restore operations. That playbook no longer holds. We must now assume compromise is inevitable — and resilience is non-negotiable.

Resilience means more than surviving an attack. It means continuing to operate despite the intrusion. It requires understanding how economic and geopolitical factors shape your digital exposure. And it demands that your organization be able to respond not just tactically, but strategically.

A modern security program should integrate three core pillars:

1. Continuous Threat Monitoring Tied to Intelligence: Detection must be real-time and informed by geopolitical threat modeling. It’s imperative to move beyond monitoring logs and chasing signatures; security teams need to understand where trade tensions are rising and assess how these shifts create new exposures across their digital supply chain.
2. AI Oversight with Governance Guardrails: As companies accelerate AI adoption, partly in response to automation pressures driven by tariffs, security leaders must ensure these systems are secure, reliable, and compliant. Frameworks like ISO 42001 and NIST AI Risk Management Framework are becoming essential components of a resilient cyber program. Without clear governance, AI can introduce as much risk as it mitigates.
3. Geopolitical Awareness as a Risk Function: Cybersecurity strategies must be aligned with broader strategic risks. As regulatory environments evolve and governments advocate for data sovereignty and domestic sourcing, enterprises need to adapt their cyber strategies accordingly. Cybersecurity has become a market access issue, and those who fail to evolve may find themselves excluded from global opportunities.

Cybersecurity as a Strategic Advantage

Cybersecurity is no longer just about protecting data but about protecting business viability in a volatile world.

Governance, compliance, and resilience have become strategic signals — demonstrating to regulators, customers, and investors that your organization understands its risk exposure and is building the capacity to operate under sustained pressure.

This shift is accelerating in regulatory circles. In Europe, the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) and the NIS2 Directive require organizations, especially in critical sectors, to go beyond traditional cybersecurity. They must prove they can withstand, recover from, and adapt to complex disruptions with executive oversight and demonstrable planning.

In the U.S., the pressure is rising even in the absence of sweeping regulation. The SEC’s cybersecurity disclosure rules require public companies to report material incidents and explain their risk governance. Meanwhile, agencies like CISA are urging more aggressive resilience standards, particularly across infrastructure and supply chain sectors.

What this means for leaders is simple but urgent: Cybersecurity is no longer an isolated IT concern. It’s a strategic capability tied to reputation, revenue, and regulatory access. Organizations that can align their cybersecurity program with business priorities — especially as trade and political pressures grow — will be better positioned to navigate global markets and maintain trust across stakeholders.

What Business Leaders Should Do Now

This moment demands more than strong tools or mature controls. It demands leadership that understands the world has changed and is willing to change with it.

If your business is part of a global supply chain, tied to strategic manufacturing, or invested in AI-led transformation, you cannot afford to treat cybersecurity as just an IT function. It’s a market access requirement, a resilience strategy, and a national security responsibility all rolled into one.

And as trade tensions continue to mount, one thing is certain: the pressure will build. The question is whether your organization is prepared to absorb it — or be undone by it.