Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) for Supply Chain Monitoring

Executive summary

Many companies face various risks across their supply chain, which are increasing, especially cyber threats. Studies indicate that nearly all companies have at least one supplier that has recently, currently, or will soon be breached, and many more will be compromised in the next year. Further research shows that in nearly every company that suffers a breach, precursor signals of the breach could have been found on the dark web if the company was looking for them. Resecurity’s research reveals that over 60% of all company breaches originate from a company within their supply chain, which increases to over 90% if technology providers are included. Although some companies assess the risk of potential suppliers during the evaluation phase, very few have the resources or mandate to monitor all their suppliers continuously. An organized CTI effort can provide companies with an economical and easy way to monitor their suppliers and determine their risk profile and the likelihood of a breach by implementing CTI practices. This paper draws many parallels to Resecurity’s previous paper, “Active Dark Web Intelligence for M&A.” CTI research can answer critical questions that can help companies understand the risks associated with their supply chain, including:

• Standard suppliers, by evaluating the precursors of a breach:
• How does this supplier compare to the cybersecurity risk with its competitors and other suppliers?
• If the company is a technology supplier and has released a new security patch, is (or will) the N-day they have patched being actively exploited by threat actors?
• Has a data breach or loss been detected that could cause regulatory or privacy concerns and materially affect their company or pose a risk to their customers?
• If my customers monitor their supply chain, what are they observing about my company?
• Critical suppliers, identifying actual breaches:
• Is the supplier experiencing a data breach, or has it experienced an undisclosed one in the past?

What is the likelihood of the supplier being targeted, and will this result in a material data breach?

How does this breach impact my company as their customer? Has the supplier leaked strategic IP that affects my company, employees, or customers?

Has the company been involved in an unknown or undeclared material breach, as the recent SEC rule 7 defined? Did my company inherit these identified issues?

Is the supplier at risk of an insider threat from disgruntled employees offering data or services on the dark web that could impact my company or customers?

If my competitors monitor the dark web for breaches of their competitors, what are they observing about my company?

Organizations inherit the cybersecurity risks of their suppliers. Unfortunately, many companies do not conduct adequate cyber risks to determine if a supplier has been breached or if there are precursors of a breach available to the threat actor to breach the company if they elect to. This lack of involvement can increase the risks of inheriting risks. Controlling cybersecurity risks can be increasingly more complex in the fast-paced business world. At the same time, information security departments need more personnel and resources to keep attackers at bay.

CTI can monitor for cyber risks in the company’s supply chain

Supply chain or third-party vendor disruptions can cause operational chaos. Specifically, if an organization experiences unauthorized access can lead to negligence claims, significant fines, contract disputes, potential lawsuits, loss of revenue, and even reputational harm. Therefore, companies must secure their data by having robust vendor agreements that address data security and outline their responsibilities in case of a breach. They also should monitor their suppliers for a potential breach that could impact their company or customers.

It is common for companies to do CTI analysis to protect themselves. Some companies use internal resources, and others use external resources to determine the supplier’s cybersecurity posture, including a perimeter scan of the supplier’s network, scans of low-end cybercrime data (TOR), and a review of the company’s source code. CTI can enhance this vetting by focusing on threats based on access to the Surface Web, Dark Web (TOR) / Deep Web, and Vetted / invite-only cybercrime communities. This allows for the following questions to be answered with high confidence:

Is the supplier breached, and if so, by whom? What is their motivation? What data has been leaked?

Are there precursors of a breach that a threat actor could use to breach the supplier if they elected to do so?

One size does not fit all

Companies and their CTI vendors must understand that a single solution does not meet every company’s needs. To address this, companies and their CTI vendors must collaborate to determine their needs and constraints. The CTI vendor must assist their customers in selecting the right combination of services to meet their requirements, including budget, timeframe, confidence, rules of engagement, and depth of insights.

This visibility is critical in providing accurate CTI. For example, Resecurity provides our customers insights based on:

• Continuously monitoring over 31k sources.
• Tracking over 38M threat actors
• Has collected, and continues to collect, billions of compromised credentials in the possession of threat actors.
• Has collected and continues to collect botnet records for billions of malware-infected devices.
• HUMINT researchers can dig deeper to answer questions that can’t be answered by analyzing dark web data.
• Managed threat detection, including 0-day and N-day discovery and analysis.
• Industry-leading primary research, digital forensics, Red teaming, identity protection, and more.

The type of information that is available

Through Resecurity and other analyses, it has been observed that there is a high correlation between the precursors of a security breach and an actual breach. Three common precursors: By analyzing dark web data, HUMINT researchers can dig deeper to answer questions that can’t be answered. This data is traded among threat actors, sold in bulk, or sold by initial access brokers. In addition to these observable precursors, Resecurity HUNTERS provides additional intelligence about undetected breaches through traditional methods. Companies can use this data to prevent threat actors from using it as a beachhead in their company’s or supplier’s networks.

Breach data

The trend of compromised accounts discovered on the dark web indicates the timing of breaches of services the company and its employees use.

For example, analysis of trends for a random Fortune 500 company, which is a supplier to nearly all customers in the US. Areas of concern:

6,273 compromised employee accounts were discovered on the dark web from 1/1/22 until 11/30/23. With a concerning trend of more compromised accounts of their employees leaking into the dark web.

Seven concerning spikes in the data indicate the company was breached or a significant company in their supply chain was breached.

Botnet data

The trend is that the number of PCs used by this company’s employees was compromised with malware. When the PC was compromised with malware, the employee’s username, password, device fingerprint, and security tokens were also compromised. Threat actors typically buy the rights to push their malware to these devices, after which they have complete control over the victim’s PC.

For example, an analysis of trends for the same random Fortune 500 company shows additional areas of concern:

• 5,406 PCs used by their employees were infected with malware from 1/1/22 until 11/30/23.
• A concerning trend of PCs being infected with malware since Q3 2022.

Dark Web Data

Monitoring data from the dark web can reveal threat actors planning to breach a company or how to monetize a breached or soon-to-be breached company.

Shawn can be reached online at (Shawn Loveland | LinkedIn) and at our company website, https://www.resecurity.com/