Potential Nvidia chip shortage looms as Chinese customers rush to beat US sales ban

There was a surge in demand for the H20 following the arrival of Chinese startup DeepSeek’s ultra low-cost, open-source AI model in January. And while the H20 is reported to be 15 times slower than Nvidia’s newest Blackwell chips sold elsewhere in the world, it was designed specifically by Nvidia to comply with the further US export controls introduced in October 2023. It is being used by Chinese companies for training, although it’s billed as an inference chip, explained Matt Kimball, VP and principal analyst for datacenter compute and storage at Moor Insights & Strategy.

Should Nvidia choose to focus its efforts on manufacturing more of the chips, Kimball said he doesn’t think it will impact supply in the US and Europe, as Blackwell is the main product sold in those markets and H20 is an N-1 Hopper architecture chip.

“If you take this a step further and ask whether this large order slows down the production of chips destined for the US and Europe, I’d say the answer is no, as the Hopper family is built on a different process node than the Blackwell family,” he said.

Still, Kimball noted, “supply chain management is difficult, especially for smaller organizations that are put to the back of the line as hyperscalers with multibillion dollar orders are first in line for the newest [chips].”